So, how exactly did Azerbaijan get Nagorno-Karabakh back? It’s a question a lot of people have been asking, and the short answer is: through a combination of renewed military strength, strategic international positioning, and a significant shift in the regional balance of power that culminated in a swift and decisive military operation in September 2023. It wasn’t a sudden event, but rather the culmination of decades of unresolved conflict and evolving circumstances.
The Long Road to 2020: Seeds of Resentment and Shifting Dynamics
For years, the Nagorno-Karabakh region, known as Artsakh by Armenians, was de facto controlled by ethnic Armenians. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, a bloody war in the early 1990s resulted in Armenian forces taking control of the territory and several surrounding Azerbaijani districts. This left a large number of Azerbaijanis displaced and fostered a deep sense of injustice and a firm resolve to reclaim these lands.
A Lingering Stalemate
The period after the first war was characterised by a tense stalemate. While negotiations, often mediated by international bodies like the OSCE Minsk Group, continued intermittently, they yielded no lasting resolution. The de facto borders remained largely unchanged, and both sides engaged in periodic skirmishes. This protracted status quo meant that the underlying issues of territory, displacement, and self-determination were never truly addressed.
The Growing Disparity: Military Modernisation in Azerbaijan
Throughout the 2000s and into the 2010s, Azerbaijan, buoyed by its oil and gas revenues, significantly invested in modernising its armed forces. This was a conscious effort to redress the military imbalance that had favoured Armenia in the early 1990s. The aim was clear: to build a military capable of achieving its objectives, should diplomatic avenues fail.
Drones: A Game Changer
A key element of this military build-up was the acquisition of modern drone technology. Azerbaijan, in particular, focused on acquiring and integrating Turkish and Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These drones proved incredibly effective in reconnaissance, targeting, and even direct strikes, allowing Azerbaijan to gain a significant tactical advantage.
Modern Infantry and Artillery
Beyond drones, there was a comprehensive upgrade of artillery, armoured vehicles, and communication systems. This wasn’t just about quantity, but also about improving the training and command structures of the Azerbaijani military to better coordinate these assets.
Armenia’s Shifting Alliances and Domestic Challenges
Meanwhile, Armenia, despite its strong historical ties with Russia, faced its own set of challenges. Economic development lagged behind that of its oil-rich neighbour, and there were ongoing domestic political shifts. While it maintained a strong fighting force, the pace of modernisation and technological adoption wasn’t as rapid as in Azerbaijan.
The “Velvet Revolution” and its Aftermath
The 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia brought a new government to power, promising reforms. While this was a significant domestic event, it also led to a period of political reorientation that, some analysts argue, may have momentarily distracted from or altered the strategic calculus concerning Nagorno-Karabakh.
The 2020 War: A Decisive Turning Point
The simmering tensions finally boiled over in September 2020. The conflict that ensued was vastly different from the one in the early 1990s, primarily due to Azerbaijan’s superior military capabilities. The war lasted 44 days and saw Azerbaijan reclaim significant territory.
The Initial Spark
The precise trigger for the 2020 war remains debated, with both sides blaming each other for provocations. However, it’s clear that Azerbaijan was prepared to use military force to achieve its long-standing territorial claims.
Azerbaijan’s Military Strategy in Action
The Azerbaijani military employed a highly effective strategy. Drone strikes crippled Armenian air defences and artillery positions from the outset. This allowed ground forces to advance more easily, capturing key strategic locations, including the strategically vital city of Shusha (Shushi).
The Role of Air Superiority
The widespread and effective use of drones gave Azerbaijan a crucial degree of air superiority. This meant Armenian forces were constantly under surveillance and vulnerable to attack, severely limiting their ability to manoeuvre and respond effectively.
Grinding Down Armenian Defences
The Azerbaijani advance was methodical. They focused on systematically dismantling Armenian defensive lines, targeting command centres and logistical hubs. This attritional warfare, combined with technological superiority, gradually wore down the Armenian resistance.
The Fall of Shusha
The capture of Shusha in November 2020 was a pivotal moment. This strategically important city, overlooking the capital of the de facto republic, Stepanakert, dealt a major blow to Armenian morale and military capabilities.
The Russian-Brokered Ceasefire
The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement. This agreement was a watershed moment, as it effectively recognised Azerbaijan’s territorial gains and established a new reality on the ground. Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the region to monitor the ceasefire.
The Post-2020 Landscape: A Fragile Peace and Continued Tensions
While the ceasefire ended the large-scale fighting, it did not resolve the underlying political issues. The de facto Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh were significantly weakened, and a large portion of the territory had returned to Azerbaijani control.
The Return of Displaced Azerbaijanis
Following the 2020 ceasefire, Azerbaijan began the process of rebuilding and reclaiming the territories it had gained. This involved returning displaced Azerbaijanis to their ancestral lands, many of whom had been living as internally displaced persons (IDPs) for decades.
Armenian Discontent and the “Peacekeepers”
The presence of Russian peacekeepers was a point of contention. While they were intended to maintain stability, many Armenians felt their presence was insufficient to guarantee security in the face of ongoing Azerbaijani pressure. The narrative of a fragile peace, constantly under threat, became prevalent.
Blockades and Humanitarian Concerns
A significant development in the period after 2020 was the repeated blockage of the Lachin corridor, the sole road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Azerbaijan cited security concerns, but the blockades severely impacted the supply of food, medicine, and other essentials to the region, leading to growing humanitarian concerns and international condemnation.
The Final Push: September 2023 Operation
The situation continued to be tense, with sporadic clashes and continued pressure from Azerbaijan. The ongoing blockades and the perceived lack of progress in resolving the status of Nagorno-Karabakh ultimately led to Azerbaijan initiating a final, swift military operation in September 2023.
The Justification for the Operation
Azerbaijan stated that its operation was a response to “provocations” by Armenian forces and aimed to “restore constitutional order” within its internationally recognised borders. They also cited the need to lift the “blockade” of territories and ensure the safety of their citizens.
The Speed and Efficiency of the Operation
This operation was remarkably swift and decisive. Within 24 hours, Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh laid down their arms. The Azerbaijani military’s overwhelming superiority in terms of equipment, training, and strategic planning was evident.
Overwhelming Firepower and Precision Strikes
The operation involved a concentrated use of artillery and air power, targeting Armenian military positions. The speed at which these positions were neutralized demonstrated the effectiveness of Azerbaijan’s military planning and execution.
Minimal Azerbaijani Casualties
Crucially, the operation reportedly resulted in very few Azerbaijani military casualties, highlighting the one-sided nature of the engagement and the significant disparity in fighting capabilities.
The Surrender and Disarmament
Faced with insurmountable odds, the de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to a ceasefire and the disarmament of their forces. This marked the end of nearly three decades of de facto Armenian control over the region.
The Aftermath: Displacement and the New Reality
The immediate aftermath of the September 2023 operation saw a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. Fearing for their safety and well-being under Azerbaijani rule, hundreds of thousands of people fled to Armenia.
The Exodus of Armenians
The sheer scale of this displacement was immense. Within days, the vast majority of the ethnic Armenian population left their homes, creating a significant humanitarian crisis for Armenia, which had to absorb a large influx of refugees.
Azerbaijan Reasserts Full Control
With the Armenian forces disarmed and the population largely departed, Azerbaijan officially regained full control over Nagorno-Karabakh. The region, which had been a source of conflict for decades, was now firmly under Azerbaijani sovereignty, at least in legal and territorial terms.
International Reactions and Future Implications
The international community’s reaction was mixed. While many countries recognised Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, concerns were raised about the humanitarian situation and the displacement of the Armenian population. The long-term implications for regional stability, the future of the South Caucasus, and the potential for reconciliation remain subjects of ongoing observation and analysis. The narrative now shifts from one of conflict over territory to one of rebuilding, governance, and the potential for lasting peace, or the continued risk of future instability.
FAQs
What is the history of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh?
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back to the early 20th century, with both Azerbaijan and Armenia laying claim to the region. The dispute escalated into a full-scale war in the late 1980s, resulting in the de facto independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was supported by Armenia.
How did Azerbaijan regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh?
Azerbaijan regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh through a six-week-long military campaign in 2020, which resulted in a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia. The agreement stipulated that Azerbaijan would retain control of the territories it had captured during the conflict.
What role did external powers play in the conflict?
External powers, including Russia, Turkey, and the United States, have historically been involved in mediating the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia played a key role in brokering the ceasefire agreement that ended the 2020 conflict.
What are the implications of Azerbaijan regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh?
The implications of Azerbaijan regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh are significant for the region. The ceasefire agreement has led to the return of Azerbaijani refugees to the region and the establishment of a Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh.
What are the prospects for a lasting resolution to the conflict?
The prospects for a lasting resolution to the conflict remain uncertain, as deep-seated grievances and territorial disputes persist between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Efforts to negotiate a comprehensive peace agreement continue, with the involvement of international mediators.
