The 2019 Bolivian political crisis was a period of intense social unrest and political upheaval that ultimately led to the resignation of long-serving President Evo Morales. At its heart, the crisis stemmed from disputed election results, accusations of fraud, and a constitutional debate over presidential term limits, all set against a backdrop of deep-seated political and social divisions within the country.
The Road to the October 2019 Election
To understand the crisis, we need to rewind a bit and look at the political landscape leading up to October 2019. Evo Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, had been in power since 2006. His presidency, under the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, brought significant social and economic reforms, lifting many out of poverty and empowering indigenous communities. However, his desire to remain in power beyond constitutional limits became a growing point of contention.
The Term Limit Debate
Bolivia’s constitution, as amended in 2009, limited presidents to two consecutive terms. Morales had already served two terms, but a controversial ruling by the Constitutional Court in 2013 allowed him to run for a third term, arguing that his first term predated the new constitution. This was a contentious interpretation, but he won that election.
Then came the 2016 referendum. Morales sought to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a fourth term. The public voted against this proposal, with 51.3% rejecting the change. Despite this clear democratic expression, Morales’s MAS party petitioned the Constitutional Court again. In 2017, the court ruled that term limits violated his human right to be elected, effectively allowing him to run indefinitely. This decision was met with widespread criticism, seen by many as undermining democratic principles and ignoring the will of the people expressed in the referendum. For many, this was the initial spark of the crisis, fostering a deep distrust in the electoral process and the impartiality of state institutions.
Pre-Election Tensions
As the October 2019 general election approached, the political atmosphere was already charged. The opposition, fragmented but increasingly vocal, coalesced around the idea that Morales was overstaying his welcome and subverting democracy. Morales, for his part, maintained that he was the only leader who could guarantee stability and continue the progress Bolivia had made under his administration. There were also growing concerns about the independence of the electoral body, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), with accusations that it was too aligned with the government. This underlying tension meant that any perceived irregularity in the upcoming election was bound to ignite significant protest.
The Disputed Election Results
The general election took place on October 20, 2019. Bolivians went to the polls to elect a president, vice president, senators, and deputies. The initial results, as they trickled in, showed a tight race between Morales and his main challenger, Carlos Mesa, a former president.
The Sudden Halt in Counting
The crucial moment of controversy occurred on election night. The TSE began releasing preliminary results through its fast-count system (TREP). With about 83% of the votes counted, the TREP indicated that Morales was leading Mesa but not by a wide enough margin (the difference was less than 10 percentage points) to avoid a second-round runoff election. Then, suddenly, the TREP system stopped updating. For nearly 24 hours, there was no further information.
When the TREP system resumed, the results showed a significant shift. Morales’s lead had inexplicably widened to just over 10 percentage points, meaning he would win outright in the first round and avoid a runoff. This abrupt change, without a clear explanation from the TSE, immediately triggered widespread suspicion and accusations of fraud from the opposition and international observers alike.
International Concerns and Protests Erupt
The pause in the vote count and the subsequent shift in results were red flags for many. The Organization of American States (OAS) electoral observation mission, which was present in Bolivia, expressed its “deep concern and surprise at the drastic and hard-to-explain change in the trend of the preliminary results.” Other international bodies and several countries echoed these concerns.
Domestically, the reaction was immediate and intense. Protests erupted across Bolivia, particularly in major cities like La Paz, Santa Cruz, and Cochabamba. Demonstrators, many of whom felt their votes had been stolen, took to the streets, clashing with police, blocking roads, and setting fire to electoral offices. The opposition demanded a full audit of the results and, increasingly, called for Morales’s resignation and new elections. The government, however, defended the process, attributing the pause to a system overload and claiming it was merely correcting errors, dismissing the accusations of fraud as politically motivated.
Escalation of the Crisis
The period following the disputed election was marked by a rapid escalation of social unrest, political deadlock, and increasing violence. The credibility of the electoral process had been severely undermined, and trust in state institutions plummeted.
Widespread Protests and Blockades
The initial protests quickly morphed into a sustained national movement. Citizens, from various social strata and regions, engaged in massive demonstrations, strikes, and road blockades. These blockades severely disrupted daily life and economic activity, highlighting the widespread discontent. The protesters’ demands evolved from simply auditing the vote to a complete annulment of the election and Morales’s resignation. Supporters of Morales also mobilised, leading to clashes between the two sides, often resulting in injuries. The country became deeply polarised, with confrontations occurring almost daily.
OAS Audit and its Findings
Under growing international pressure and with an aim to de-escalate the situation, the Bolivian government invited the OAS to conduct a binding audit of the election results. Both the government and the opposition initially agreed to abide by its findings. The audit began in late October, with a team of international experts scrutinising the electoral process, vote counts, and computer systems.
On November 10, 2019, the OAS released its preliminary report. Its findings were damning. The report concluded that it was “statistically unlikely” that Morales had won by the required 10-point margin and that there were “clear manipulations” of the electoral system. It cited numerous irregularities, including:
- Evidence of deliberate manipulation of the TREP system.
- Irregularities in the chain of custody of ballot papers.
- Significant discrepancies in the vote count.
- Evidence of server manipulation and data redirection.
The OAS recommended annulling the results of the election and holding new elections with a new electoral body. This report provided crucial international validation for the claims of fraud and significantly intensified the pressure on Morales.
Military and Police Intervention
The OAS report proved to be a tipping point. Shortly after its release, Bolivia’s police force, which had been struggling to contain the protests and was facing accusations of excessive force, began to publicly mutiny. Police officers in several cities joined the protesters, removing their insignias and expressing solidarity with the anti-government movement. This police rebellion severely weakened Morales’s hold on power and further emboldened the opposition.
Crucially, the military also intervened. The commander-in-chief of the Bolivian Armed Forces, General Williams Kaliman, appeared on national television and “suggested” that President Morales resign “for the good of Bolivia” and to restore peace. This call from the military, often seen as the ultimate guarantor of stability in Latin American nations, was widely interpreted as an ultimatum and effectively sealed Morales’s fate.
Morales’s Resignation and the Interim Government
Faced with overwhelming pressure from mass protests, the damning OAS report, police mutiny, and the military’s suggestion, Evo Morales announced his resignation on November 10, 2019, shortly after the OAS report was published.
Morales’s Departure
In a televised address, Morales claimed he was resigning to prevent further bloodshed and to protect his supporters, asserting that he was the victim of a “coup.” He subsequently sought asylum in Mexico, marking the end of nearly 14 years in power. His departure left a significant power vacuum and plunged Bolivia into further political uncertainty. Many of his supporters saw his resignation as a forced removal, a coup orchestrated by right-wing forces and international actors, undermining democracy. Conversely, his opponents viewed it as the necessary consequence of his attempts to subvert democratic processes and cling to power.
The Interim Administration of Jeanine Áñez
With Morales and his vice president, Álvaro García Linera, having resigned, and other high-ranking officials also stepping down, there was a constitutional crisis regarding who should legitimately assume the presidency. The line of succession fell to the president of the Senate. However, the MAS majority in the legislature boycotted the session, arguing the resignations were invalid or forced.
In this chaotic environment, Jeanine Áñez Chávez, the second vice president of the Senate and a prominent opposition figure, declared herself interim president on November 12, 2019. She argued that she was next in the line of succession and that her assumption of power was necessary to prevent a power vacuum and restore order. Her claim was endorsed by the Constitutional Court.
However, her legitimacy was immediately questioned by MAS supporters and some international observers. They argued that her ascension was unconstitutional because the legislative session in which she assumed power lacked the necessary quorum and that she unilaterally declared herself president without proper parliamentary process.
Challenges and Controversies of the Interim Government
The Áñez government presented itself as a transitional administration, with its primary goal being to hold new, free, and fair elections. However, its tenure was marked by significant controversy and challenges:
- Political Purge: The interim government quickly moved to remove MAS-aligned officials from key positions, leading to accusations of a political purge.
- Human Rights Concerns: There were widespread concerns about human rights abuses under the interim government, particularly regarding the suppression of protests by security forces. The “Senkata massacre” and the “Sacaba massacre,” where security forces opened fire on pro-Morales protesters, resulted in numerous deaths and injuries and attracted international condemnation.
- Restoration of Diplomatic Ties: The Áñez government reversed several of Morales’s foreign policy decisions, including restoring diplomatic relations with the United States and Israel, and expelling Venezuelan and Cuban diplomats.
- Delaying Elections: While initially pledging quick elections, the COVID-19 pandemic provided a reason for multiple delays, which fueled suspicions that the interim government was trying to prolong its stay in power.
- Persecution of MAS: The Áñez government launched investigations and legal actions against former MAS officials, including Morales himself, often on charges of sedition and terrorism, which MAS supporters saw as politically motivated persecution.
These actions, combined with the ongoing deep divisions within Bolivian society, meant that the interim government, despite its stated goal of restoring democracy, struggled to gain broad legitimacy and often exacerbated tensions.
The Aftermath and New Elections
| Metric | Details |
|---|---|
| Event | 2019 Bolivian Political Crisis |
| Start Date | October 2019 |
| End Date | November 2019 |
| Key Figure | Evo Morales (then President) |
| Trigger | Contested presidential election results |
| Election Date | 20 October 2019 |
| Official Result | Evo Morales declared winner with 47.08% votes |
| Opposition Claim | Allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities |
| Protests | Widespread protests and civil unrest across Bolivia |
| Resignation | Evo Morales resigned on 10 November 2019 |
| Interim Government | Jeanine Áñez declared interim president |
| International Reaction | Mixed responses; some countries recognised interim government, others condemned the coup |
| Casualties | At least 30 deaths reported during protests |
| Subsequent Election | Presidential election held in October 2020 |
| Outcome of Subsequent Election | Luis Arce (MAS party) won with 55% of the vote |
The interim period under Jeanine Áñez was fraught with tension and continued political instability. The ultimate goal, however, remained the holding of new, transparent elections to restore constitutional order.
The Path to New Elections
After several delays, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, new general elections were finally scheduled for October 18, 2020. This time, significant efforts were made to ensure the integrity of the electoral process. A new Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) was appointed, composed of new members, to oversee the elections and rebuild public trust. International observers, including the OAS and the European Union, were once again invited to monitor the process closely.
The 2020 Election Results
The 2020 general election saw a decisive victory for the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Luis Arce Catacora, Morales’s former economy minister, won the presidency in the first round with 55.1% of the vote, exceeding the 10-point margin required to avoid a runoff. His main opponent, Carlos Mesa, received 28.8%, and Luis Fernando Camacho, another prominent opposition figure, came in third with 14%.
The results were widely accepted both domestically and internationally. Even the opposition, including Áñez and Mesa, acknowledged the legitimacy of Arce’s victory, a stark contrast to the previous year. This outcome demonstrated the continued strength of the MAS party and its support base, despite the political upheaval and Morales’s exile.
Lingering Divisions and Future Challenges
While the 2020 election brought a degree of political stability and a return to constitutional rule, the underlying divisions that fuelled the 2019 crisis did not simply vanish. Bolivia remains a deeply polarised nation.
- Justice and Accountability: The question of accountability for the events of 2019 and the subsequent human rights abuses under the interim government remains a contentious issue. The MAS government has pursued legal action against Jeanine Áñez and others involved in her administration, leading to her arrest and trial on charges related to her assumption of power, which she and her supporters maintain was constitutional. This has been viewed by some as political revenge and by others as necessary justice.
- Political Reconciliation: Genuine reconciliation between the different political factions and social groups is a long and difficult process. The events of 2019 left deep scars, and trust in political institutions and processes needs to be rebuilt.
- Economic Challenges: Bolivia continues to face significant economic challenges, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The country’s reliance on natural resources and the need for economic diversification remain key issues that will require broad consensus to address effectively.
The 2019 Bolivian political crisis serves as a powerful reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions when faced with challenges to term limits, accusations of electoral fraud, and deep social divisions. While the 2020 elections provided a constitutional resolution, the journey towards lasting peace and political stability in Bolivia continues to be complex and demanding.
FAQs
What triggered the 2019 Bolivian political crisis?
The crisis was triggered by the disputed presidential election held on October 20, 2019, which was marred by allegations of fraud and irregularities. The opposition and international observers raised concerns about the transparency of the electoral process.
Who was the president of Bolivia during the 2019 political crisis?
Evo Morales was the president of Bolivia during the 2019 political crisis. He had been in power since 2006 and was seeking a controversial fourth term in the disputed election that led to the crisis.
What role did the military play in the 2019 Bolivian political crisis?
During the crisis, the military called for Evo Morales to resign, leading to his resignation on November 10, 2019. This intervention by the military was seen as a significant factor in the resolution of the crisis.
How did the international community respond to the 2019 Bolivian political crisis?
The international community expressed concern over the political crisis in Bolivia. The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit of the election and raised doubts about its integrity, leading to calls for new elections from various countries and organizations.
What were the main outcomes of the 2019 Bolivian political crisis?
The main outcomes of the crisis included Evo Morales resigning from the presidency and seeking asylum in Mexico, the appointment of an interim president, Jeanine Áñez, and the scheduling of new elections to restore democratic order in Bolivia.
